FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionRRiftloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rift
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 21 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Underlord
Covisnine · 12 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 193 bans
Puck
295 picks · 661 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 614 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 516 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
Marci
244 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Rift
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:43
Rift 29%Nemiga Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 56:13.
Game 2prediction correct16:43
Rift 29%Nemiga Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2