BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
RISE Esportsloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 319 bans
Marci
264 picks · 499 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 575 bans
Undying
246 picks · 459 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 128 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% RISE Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
RISE Esports 17%HellRaisers 83%
The model gave 83% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 26:19.
Game 2prediction correct7:26
RISE Esports 17%HellRaisers 83%
The model gave 83% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 22:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 83%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2