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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Riyadh Chefsloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hininywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Riyadh Chefs

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
OwnedMe · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
OwnedMe · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
100%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
0%

Hininy

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
islA · 2 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
islA · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
islA · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
islA · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
islA · 1 game
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
islA · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 436 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
274 picks · 410 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 442 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 207 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
229 picks · 212 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
227 picks · 640 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
224 picks · 118 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
218 picks · 310 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 30%
Hero pool strength51% Riyadh Chefs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hininy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:42
Riyadh Chefs 55%Hininy 45%
The model gave 55% on Riyadh Chefs — the game was taken by Hininy in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMastermind
63% · 12 games38% · 12 games
Anti-MageislA
Anti-Mage
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Riyadh Chefs 46%Hininy 54%
The model gave 54% on Hininy — the game was taken by Hininy in 51:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteHininy · 54%
Series resultHininy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2