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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ToLightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RedPanda · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 5 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%

ToLight

Snapfire
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
sheep · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
450 picks · 424 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
444 picks · 225 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 937 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 225 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
285 picks · 661 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
281 picks · 666 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:4
Roar Gaming 65%ToLight 35%
The model gave 65% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetButterflyEffect
50% · 28 games45% · 270 games
Hoodwinksheep
Hoodwink
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightUlu
65% · 65 games
Marci
Marci生死
50% · 24 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCatYou
56% · 57 games
Snapfire
SnapfireRedPanda
54% · 96 games
Game 2prediction correct20:7
Roar Gaming 65%ToLight 35%
The model gave 65% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 21:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageUlu
53% · 15 games50% · 266 games
Tusksheep
Tusk
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
51% · 108 games
Riki
Riki生死
33% · 11 games
Enchantress
EnchantressRedPanda
56% · 78 games
Snapfire
SnapfireCatYou
52% · 54 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 76%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2