Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rostik999 Clubloss 1:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Daxak Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rostik999 Club
No games played over 6 months.
Daxak Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
564 picks · 348 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 567 bans
Rubick
455 picks · 239 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 530 bans
Puck
330 picks · 865 bans
Beastmaster
320 picks · 804 bans
Tusk
310 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Rostik999 Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Rostik999 Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Rostik999 Club 79%Daxak Team 21%
The model gave 79% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Rostik999 Club 79%Daxak Team 21%
The model gave 79% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Rostik999 Club.
Game 3prediction missed
Rostik999 Club 79%Daxak Team 21%
The model gave 79% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRostik999 Club · 79%
Series resultDaxak Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3