Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rostik999 Clubwin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stariy_Bog Clubloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rostik999 Club
No games played over 6 months.
Stariy_Bog Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
602 picks · 374 bans
Rubick
497 picks · 269 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 579 bans
Tiny
463 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
404 picks · 563 bans
Puck
341 picks · 928 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 860 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Rostik999 Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Rostik999 Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Rostik999 Club 73%Stariy_Bog Club 27%
The model gave 73% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club.
Game 2prediction correct
Rostik999 Club 73%Stariy_Bog Club 27%
The model gave 73% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Rostik999 Club.
Game 3prediction correct
Rostik999 Club 73%Stariy_Bog Club 27%
The model gave 73% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Rostik999 Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteRostik999 Club · 73%
Series resultRostik999 Club 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3