DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionRBRoyal Bearwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FFunFunloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Bear
No games played over 6 months.
FunFun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
523 picks · 314 bans
Dark Willow
440 picks · 212 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
340 picks · 307 bans
Ember Spirit
329 picks · 505 bans
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Royal Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:3
Royal Bear 84%FunFun 16%
The model gave 84% on Royal Bear — the game was taken by Royal Bear in 17:10.
Game 2prediction correct37:13
Royal Bear 84%FunFun 16%
The model gave 84% on Royal Bear — the game was taken by Royal Bear in 30:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Bear · 84%
Series resultRoyal Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2