Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Dragon
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
105 picks · 228 bans
Mars
98 picks · 199 bans
Earth Spirit
91 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
80 picks · 136 bans
Phoenix
74 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
65 picks · 33 bans
Undying
64 picks · 84 bans
Nyx Assassin
62 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Royal Never Give Up 35%Dragon 65%
The model gave 65% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 32:33.
Game 2prediction correct19:9
Royal Never Give Up 35%Dragon 65%
The model gave 65% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 26:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 65%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2