PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
Tinysignature
XinQ · 13 games
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
696 picks · 501 bans
Puck
495 picks · 993 bans
Dawnbreaker
404 picks · 512 bans
Snapfire
391 picks · 195 bans
Marci
366 picks · 680 bans
Mars
332 picks · 545 bans
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 297 bans
Monkey King
307 picks · 639 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 69%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total84% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
Royal Never Give Up 16%LGD Gaming 84%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 25:42.
Game 2prediction correct39:36
Royal Never Give Up 16%LGD Gaming 84%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 84%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2