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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 56 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 52 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 51 game
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 43 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 36 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 35 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
69%

Amaru Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 2 games
50%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 2 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Gardick · 2 games
0%
Bane
Bane
Gardick · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
774 picks · 356 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
595 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
561 picks · 451 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 549 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
546 picks · 670 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 306 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 748 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 545 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Runa Team 64%Amaru Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
49% · 343 games47% · 156 games
Troll WarlordWits
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
52% · 295 games50% · 593 games
Dragon KnightTaiLung
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
50% · 410 games47% · 632 games
PangolierOscar
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
53% · 291 game50% · 355 games
Shadow DemonGardick
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskHduo
53% · 397 games
Game 2prediction correct42:17
Runa Team 65%Amaru Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
46% · 381 game49% · 457 games
BeastmasterWits
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackAlberkaaa
58% · 330 games46% · 121 game
BrewmasterOscar
Brewmaster
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
57% · 233 games50% · 416 games
Ember SpiritTaiLung
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonqueezy
51% · 191 game45% · 539 games
JakiroGardick
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskHduo
49% · 398 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 74%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2