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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 23 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 19 games
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 19 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
74%

Ban9PivoSamogon

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
ififall · 1 game
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
zvёzd · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ififall · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand King
ряф^^ · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
lupsione · 1 game
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
lupsione · 1 game
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
VaniLLl · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
514 picks · 546 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
390 picks · 231 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 410 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 870 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 479 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 910 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 298 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
293 picks · 634 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:39
Runa Team 62%Ban9PivoSamogon 38%
The model gave 62% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusanesfeer
42% · 141 game66% · 81 game
Ursazvёzd
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painnicky`cool
43% · 129 games54% · 58 games
Dazzleряф^^
Dazzle
Marci
MarciAlberkaaa
46% · 103 games56% · 220 games
Doomififall
Doom
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
37% · 60 games30% · 14 games
Pudgenot me
Pudge
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHtrd
48% · 84 games55% · 144 games
PugnaVaniLLl
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct45:30
Runa Team 64%Ban9PivoSamogon 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcinesfeer
46% · 75 games57% · 187 games
Doomzvёzd
Doom
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
49% · 59 games48% · 73 games
Dazzleряф^^
Dazzle
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
54% · 110 games50% · 43 games
Slardarififall
Slardar
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
40% · 36 games46% · 17 games
Pudgenot me
Pudge
Pugna
PugnaHtrd
45% · 65 games58% · 25 games
Winter WyvernVaniLLl
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction missed31:29
Runa Team 64%Ban9PivoSamogon 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
57% · 124 games47% · 117 games
Medusazvёzd
Medusa
Necrophos
NecrophosAlberkaaa
57% · 3 games47% · 115 games
Abaddonififall
Abaddon
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
59% · 79 games42% · 68 games
Dazzleряф^^
Dazzle
Marci
Marciqueezy
53% · 113 games40% · 15 games
Pudgenot me
Pudge
Silencer
SilencerHtrd
49% · 99 games49% · 103 games
PugnaVaniLLl
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 74%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3