DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 3:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:1
eSpoiledloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 29 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 29 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 26 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 19 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 18 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 15 games
Pugnaoften banned
asdekor_r · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
333 picks · 312 bans
Puck
327 picks · 811 bans
Snapfire
283 picks · 140 bans
Pugna
281 picks · 314 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 761 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 248 bans
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
Marci
262 picks · 803 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total68% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:27
Runa Team 59%eSpoiled 41%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawnicky`cool
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Troll Warlordnesfeer
LeshracDifference
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
SnapfireWein
Hoodwinkqueezy
Warlockasdekor_r
OracleHduo
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Runa Team 60%eSpoiled 40%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopternesfeer
Storm SpiritDifference
Void Spiritnicky`cool
Ursassnovv1
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Enchantressasdekor_r
Hoodwinkqueezy
Shadow DemonWein
DisruptorHduo
Game 3prediction correct24:12
Runa Team 59%eSpoiled 41%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Timbersawnicky`cool
Storm SpiritDifference
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Oracleasdekor_r
Batriderqueezy
HoodwinkWein
DisruptorHduo
Game 4prediction correct35:14
Runa Team 61%eSpoiled 39%
The model gave 61% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealernesfeer
Terrorbladessnovv1
Tinynicky`cool
Void SpiritDifference
SlardarAlberkaaa
Shadow DemonWein
Snapfirequeezy
Elder Titanasdekor_r
SilencerHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 68%
Series resultRuna Team 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4