CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Most Wantedwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Batridersignature
queezy · 50 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 48 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 48 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 44 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 38 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
Most Wanted
Tusk
Ponlo · 13 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 12 games
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 9 games
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
731 picks · 348 bans
Disruptor
602 picks · 636 bans
Hoodwink
514 picks · 265 bans
Puck
430 picks · 1176 bans
Mars
422 picks · 693 bans
Tusk
422 picks · 269 bans
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 436 bans
Jakiro
362 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:22
Runa Team 56%Most Wanted 44%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursanesfeer
Nature's Prophetniche
Pucknicky`cool
Broodmother423
AxeAlberkaaa
ViperfortniteMan
ChenHduo
Spirit BreakerPonlo
Hoodwinkqueezy
DazzleRein
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Runa Team 58%Most Wanted 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Dragon Knightniche
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Naga Siren423
PangolierAlberkaaa
BristlebackfortniteMan
ChenHduo
SnapfirePonlo
Skywrath Magequeezy
EnchantressRein
Game 3prediction missed9:43
Runa Team 59%Most Wanted 41%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusanesfeer
Batrider423
UnderlordAlberkaaa
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Puckniche
Tinyqueezy
Shadow DemonPonlo
DisruptorHduo
ClockwerkRein
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 67%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3