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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
queezy · 6 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mary_y · 5 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
queezy · 4 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Mary_y · 4 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
100%

MOUZ

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 15 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 15 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 453 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 576 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
321 picks · 148 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
295 picks · 602 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 517 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
278 picks · 155 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
274 picks · 506 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
273 picks · 572 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:16
Runa Team 37%MOUZ 63%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
47% · 140 games49% · 103 games
Nature's ProphetKami
Nature's Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
57% · 114 games57% · 79 games
Enigmazeal
Enigma
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
51% · 134 games48% · 95 games
KunkkaW1sh-
Kunkka
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
43% · 266 games48% · 290 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
52% · 148 games49% · 235 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed38:17
Runa Team 37%MOUZ 63%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Runa Team in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShigetsu
52% · 185 games51% · 202 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
54% · 293 games53% · 122 games
Brewmasterzeal
Brewmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaAlberkaaa
51% · 80 games54% · 279 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
43% · 157 games47% · 152 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
44% · 104 games50% · 64 games
Shadow ShamanSeleri
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 75%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2