PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 36 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 34 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 33 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 26 games
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 21 game
Disruptor
Zayac · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 15 games
Tiny
Copy · 14 games
Magnussignature
BOOM · 13 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 12 games
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
442 picks · 419 bans
Snapfire
434 picks · 218 bans
Puck
351 picks · 928 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
292 picks · 147 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 227 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 665 bans
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 854 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:32
Runa Team 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Abaddongotthejuice
Lifestealernesfeer
Earthshakerpma
MarsAlberkaaa
HuskarNiku
Snapfirequeezy
Shadow DemonZayac
DisruptorHduo
JakiroRiddys
Game 2prediction correct20:45
Runa Team 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawnicky`cool
Shadow FiendNiku
Svennesfeer
Abaddongotthejuice
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Pangolierpma
Hoodwinkqueezy
BaneZayac
DisruptorHduo
JakiroRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2