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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 21 game
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 18 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
yowaai · 17 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
yowaai · 16 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Malik · 16 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ankou · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kidaro · 15 games
73%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 20 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 17 games
59%
Razor
Razor
Crystallis · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 353 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
354 picks · 640 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
347 picks · 396 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 183 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 453 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 344 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 568 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 228 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 26%
Hero pool strength54% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:28
Rune Eaters 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerCopy
47% · 116 games41% · 53 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Lycan
LycanMalik
50% · 88 games60% · 40 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Kez
Kezrincyq
51% · 138 games51% · 233 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaEkki
52% · 75 games49% · 157 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Bane
Baneaik
48% · 143 games53% · 77 games
Winter WyvernTobi
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed38:28
Rune Eaters 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
50% · 191 game59% · 136 games
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Invoker
InvokerCopy
51% · 149 games45% · 421 game
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
53% · 364 games47% · 264 games
AxeBOOM
Axe
Lich
Lichaik
49% · 90 games43% · 215 games
GyrocopterOneJey
Gyrocopter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
50% · 538 games52% · 296 games
BaneTobi
Bane
Game 3prediction correct51:29
Rune Eaters 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidrincyq
59% · 56 games49% · 213 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
49% · 222 games52% · 80 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireMalik
51% · 336 games49% · 322 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Mirana
Miranaaik
57% · 99 games41% · 138 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickEkki
45% · 188 games49% · 148 games
UndyingTobi
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3