ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
PARI PARNIwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
584 picks · 446 bans
Puck
413 picks · 889 bans
Mars
379 picks · 590 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 475 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
306 picks · 364 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% PARI PARNI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Rune Eaters 47%PARI PARNI 53%
The model gave 53% on PARI PARNI — the game was taken by PARI PARNI in 31:39.
Model check result
Model favoritePARI PARNI · 53%
Series resultPARI PARNI 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1