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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Power Rangerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 44 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 35 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 26 games
58%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
56%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 26 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 24 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 19 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
605 picks · 524 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 413 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 243 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
484 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 411 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 915 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
389 picks · 238 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total64% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:4
Rune Eaters 43%Power Rangers 57%
The model gave 57% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
49% · 232 games46% · 269 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordAnkou
49% · 220 games54% · 389 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Puck
PuckEthereal
48% · 417 games50% · 486 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkani-san
51% · 489 games50% · 326 games
PhoenixImmersion
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
51% · 319 games53% · 207 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct9:35
Rune Eaters 43%Power Rangers 57%
The model gave 57% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 27:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackyowaai
53% · 326 games46% · 322 games
BeastmasterTA2000
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEthereal
55% · 127 games46% · 339 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Slardar
SlardarAnkou
53% · 316 games61% · 22 games
Legion CommanderAlberkaaa
Legion Commander
Phoenix
PhoenixKidaro
53% · 250 games47% · 448 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Rubick
Rubickani-san
54% · 175 games41% · 63 games
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct25:45
Rune Eaters 40%Power Rangers 60%
The model gave 60% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
52% · 200 games53% · 64 games
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEthereal
49% · 354 games48% · 155 games
DoomAlberkaaa
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierAnkou
43% · 243 games48% · 488 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightani-san
55% · 89 games56% · 108 games
SilencerHduo
Silencer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKidaro
52% · 48 games47% · 119 games
ClockwerkImmersion
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 64%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3