FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
strongboyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 46 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 41 game
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 31 game
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 29 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 27 games
strongboys
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Tobi · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
532 picks · 868 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 379 bans
Dragon Knight
470 picks · 633 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 589 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 818 bans
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 574 bans
Mars
345 picks · 483 bans
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:42
Rune Eaters 55%strongboys 45%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by strongboys in 46:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckEthereal
GyrocopterLowskill
Dragon Knightyowaai
Ember SpiritStojkov
SlardarAnkou
MarciChodΣX
Tinyani-san
MuertaPonlo
Jakiromonodrama
Nyx AssassinTobi
Game 2prediction missed16:38
Rune Eaters 56%strongboys 44%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by strongboys in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightyowaai
GyrocopterLowskill
Queen of PainEthereal
InvokerStojkov
SlardarAnkou
MarciChodΣX
Tinyani-san
JakiroTobi
Dazzlemonodrama
MuertaPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 65%
Series resultstrongboys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2