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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 60 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 52 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 37 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 35 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 33 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 32 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Htrd · 31 game
65%

Winter Bear

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
waveformn · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fortniteMan · 11 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 11 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
682 picks · 852 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
590 picks · 609 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 428 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
491 picks · 337 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 1117 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 701 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1032 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 629 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:16
Rune Eaters 64%Winter Bear 36%
The model gave 64% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyowaai
46% · 551 game60% · 48 games
Lunapaw
Luna
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
51% · 236 games51% · 347 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
49% · 423 games49% · 301 game
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerani-san
52% · 94 games49% · 407 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Lich
LichKidaro
49% · 18 games48% · 219 games
Shadow ShamanDelight
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed44:45
Rune Eaters 65%Winter Bear 35%
The model gave 65% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
52% · 257 games50% · 334 games
Templar Assassinpaw
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
54% · 320 games45% · 229 games
LeshracPanda
Leshrac
Underlord
UnderlordAnkou
49% · 205 games42% · 458 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
54% · 300 games51% · 274 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
56% · 308 games47% · 95 games
Nyx Assassinwaveformn
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed36:52
Rune Eaters 64%Winter Bear 36%
The model gave 64% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenyowaai
61% · 119 games44% · 183 games
LeshracPanda
Leshrac
Puck
PuckEthereal
48% · 311 games48% · 63 games
Slarkpaw
Slark
Weaver
WeaverAnkou
52% · 108 games51% · 112 games
ViperfortniteMan
Viper
Tusk
Tuskani-san
48% · 438 games50% · 423 games
Tinywaveformn
Tiny
Lich
LichKidaro
61% · 10 games48% · 205 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 78%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3