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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 21 game
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 19 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Malik · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windranger
yowaai · 17 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
yowaai · 16 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ankou · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kidaro · 15 games
73%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 38 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 32 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 28 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kami · 23 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 20 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Kami · 19 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
dEsire · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 350 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
352 picks · 638 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 398 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 178 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 452 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 341 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 572 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
297 picks · 226 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:24
Rune Eaters 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenrincyq
43% · 97 games53% · 191 game
Windrangernesfeer
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
56% · 478 games53% · 257 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalik
47% · 169 games49% · 53 games
LinaDifference
Lina
Mirana
MiranaEkki
46% · 117 games55% · 266 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Lich
Lichaik
49% · 130 games46% · 224 games
Rubickmrls
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed10:49
Rune Eaters 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
Iorincyq
38% · 29 games57% · 62 games
Clinkznesfeer
Clinkz
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
52% · 77 games55% · 311 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCopy
41% · 109 games47% · 193 games
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
53% · 503 games56% · 239 games
Ringmastermrls
Ringmaster
Clockwerk
Clockwerkaik
47% · 233 games50% · 146 games
UndyingdEsire
Undying
Game 3prediction correct41:28
Rune Eaters 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 54:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaCopy
57% · 70 games46% · 175 games
Windrangernesfeer
Windranger
Kez
Kezrincyq
49% · 299 games48% · 175 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalik
45% · 187 games55% · 190 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Undying
Undyingaik
54% · 168 games51% · 233 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Lion
LionEkki
53% · 187 games42% · 138 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 53%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3