ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CCubaloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 7 games
Mirana
N1NE · 6 games
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Rubick
N1NE · 4 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Iooften banned
Jubei · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 3 games
Cuba
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 190 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 388 bans
Dark Willow
178 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 246 bans
Phoenix
152 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Cuba
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Cuba
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Sand King Gomez 50%Cuba 50%
The model gave 50% on Cuba — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez.
Model check result
Model favoriteCuba · 50%
Series resultSand King Gomez 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1