Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
JMJedi Mind Trickswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
No games played over 6 months.
Jedi Mind Tricks
Hoodwink
lukiluki · 2 games
Clinkz
Shoe · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Tiny
Sonic · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
785 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 688 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
395 picks · 758 bans
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 820 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Jedi Mind Tricks
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Jedi Mind Tricks
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct62:34
Sand King Gomez 42%Jedi Mind Tricks 58%
The model gave 58% on Jedi Mind Tricks — the game was taken by Jedi Mind Tricks in 46:42.
Game 2prediction missed46:17
Sand King Gomez 42%Jedi Mind Tricks 58%
The model gave 58% on Jedi Mind Tricks — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 30:53.
Game 3prediction correct22:43
Sand King Gomez 42%Jedi Mind Tricks 58%
The model gave 58% on Jedi Mind Tricks — the game was taken by Jedi Mind Tricks in 41:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteJedi Mind Tricks · 58%
Series resultJedi Mind Tricks 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3