Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
Disruptor
Lelis · 8 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
562 picks · 492 bans
Beastmaster
460 picks · 1113 bans
Doom
450 picks · 822 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 835 bans
Enchantress
383 picks · 549 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:36
Sand King Gomez 32%nouns 68%
The model gave 68% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Skywrath MageN1NE
MagnusGunnar
MiranaJubei
BloodseekerYamSun
46% · 144 games
EnchantressMoo
57% · 22 games
Bounty HunterLelis
55% · 77 games
TechiesHusky
Game 2prediction correct11:21
Sand King Gomez 31%nouns 69%
The model gave 69% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SilencerJubei
TerrorbladeYamSun
MiranaN1NE
PangolierGunnar
49% · 38 games
EarthshakerMoo
51% · 70 games
TechiesHusky
52% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightLelis
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 81%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2