PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Second Windloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ssapsapwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Second Wind
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Leshrac
Beebie · 1 game
Muerta
TrazaM · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Tusk
TrazaM · 1 game
sapsap
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
551 picks · 834 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 642 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 580 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 763 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 584 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 545 bans
Mars
343 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% sapsap
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% sapsap
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Second Wind 20%sapsap 80%
The model gave 80% on sapsap — the game was taken by sapsap.
Game 2prediction correct
Second Wind 20%sapsap 80%
The model gave 80% on sapsap — the game was taken by sapsap.
Model check result
Model favoritesapsap · 80%
Series resultsapsap 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2