DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Shadow Dancewin 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TATeam Amezakiqnloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shadow Dance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Amezakiqn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
525 picks · 318 bans
Dark Willow
441 picks · 211 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 306 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 505 bans
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
278 picks · 138 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Shadow Dance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Shadow Dance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Shadow Dance 55%Team Amezakiqn 45%
The model gave 55% on Shadow Dance — the game was taken by Shadow Dance.
Model check result
Model favoriteShadow Dance · 55%
Series resultShadow Dance 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1