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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shenzhen

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
TK · 6 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
phoenix · 6 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RedPanda · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
25%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
Ulu · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 272 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
391 picks · 502 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 502 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 490 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
289 picks · 471 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
250 picks · 335 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
245 picks · 459 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
244 picks · 337 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:23
Shenzhen 44%Aster.Aries 56%
The model gave 56% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 43:11.
Game 2prediction correct12:33
Shenzhen 44%Aster.Aries 56%
The model gave 56% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:26.
Game 3prediction correct31:15
Shenzhen 44%Aster.Aries 56%
The model gave 56% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 42:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 56%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3