Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
494 picks · 428 bans
Mars
456 picks · 679 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 535 bans
Bane
406 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 590 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 569 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 643 bans
Ember Spirit
329 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Shenzhen 44%Team MagMa 56%
The model gave 56% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 33:47.
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Shenzhen 44%Team MagMa 56%
The model gave 56% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 39:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 56%
Series resultShenzhen 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2