DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 18 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 627 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 533 bans
Doom
537 picks · 1054 bans
Beastmaster
536 picks · 1319 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1177 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 950 bans
Techies
455 picks · 466 bans
Mirana
438 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength62% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
Shopify Rebellion 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by beastcoast in 25:03.
Game 2prediction correct34:23
Shopify Rebellion 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2