DreamLeague Season 21 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 23 games
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 21 game
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
Undyingsignature
Fly · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Techiessignature
Save- · 36 games
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 32 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 31 game
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 26 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 25 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
343 picks · 165 bans
Ember Spirit
259 picks · 340 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 433 bans
Storm Spirit
208 picks · 330 bans
Dark Seer
206 picks · 393 bans
Beastmaster
204 picks · 436 bans
Batrider
202 picks · 291 bans
Undying
202 picks · 364 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total68% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:9
Shopify Rebellion 38%BETBOOM TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArteezy
JuggernautNightfall
RazorAbed
Legion CommanderPure~
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
LeshracgpK~
Dark WillowCr1t-
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Treant ProtectorFly
BaneSave-
Game 2prediction correct14:24
Shopify Rebellion 41%BETBOOM TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaArteezy
JuggernautNightfall
PangolierAbed
Templar AssassingpK~
TidehunterSabeRLight-
AxePure~
Nature's ProphetFly
BaneSave-
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Game 3prediction missed34:18
Shopify Rebellion 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidArteezy
Phantom AssassinNightfall
PangolierAbed
AxePure~
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Storm SpiritgpK~
WarlockFly
Keeper of the LightSave-
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 68%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3