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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Yopaj · 12 games
42%

BOOM Esports

Batrider
Batrider
Tims · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 20 games
70%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Jaunuel · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 490 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 566 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
373 picks · 180 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
290 picks · 545 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
271 picks · 378 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
263 picks · 154 bans
48%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
261 picks · 514 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
257 picks · 144 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:35
Shopify Rebellion 59%BOOM Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 54:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
49% · 350 games46% · 186 games
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
53% · 281 game46% · 119 games
KunkkaArmel
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
54% · 255 games50% · 248 games
Sand KingJabz
Sand King
Slark
SlarkHellscream
49% · 95 games48% · 320 games
JakiroJaunuel
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSkem
55% · 113 games49% · 221 game
WindrangerTims
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed12:28
Shopify Rebellion 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
47% · 331 game40% · 315 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
43% · 382 games51% · 270 games
PuckArmel
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingDavai
55% · 273 games62% · 185 games
EnigmaJabz
Enigma
Muerta
MuertaHellscream
48% · 365 games48% · 553 games
TinyTims
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSkem
53% · 179 games54% · 207 games
RingmasterJaunuel
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 62%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2