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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Skem · 11 games
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
22%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 4 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
355 picks · 345 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
352 picks · 401 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 504 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
281 picks · 388 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
277 picks · 458 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Shopify Rebellion 54%Cuyes Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
45% · 195 games51% · 213 games
LunaCostabile
Luna
Visage
Visagemangekyou
59% · 33 games52% · 201 game
KunkkaILICH-
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
45% · 39 games50% · 169 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
46% · 199 games51% · 67 games
Treant ProtectorPanda
Treant Protector
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
54% · 184 games
Game 2prediction correct30:30
Shopify Rebellion 58%Cuyes Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 48:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
53% · 173 games43% · 300 games
MorphlingCostabile
Morphling
Viper
ViperYopaj
55% · 55 games46% · 97 games
Queen of PainPiPi
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
Pangoliermangekyou
52% · 272 games47% · 225 games
DoomILICH-
Doom
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
54% · 213 games48% · 276 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
55% · 185 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 63%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2