DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GGOBURRRrrrloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Abed · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 7 games
Muertasignature
Arteezy · 7 games
GOBURRRrrr
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
241 picks · 384 bans
Centaur Warrunner
233 picks · 312 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 101 bans
Tusk
212 picks · 202 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 365 bans
Kunkka
190 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct68:26
Shopify Rebellion 91%GOBURRRrrr 9%
The model gave 91% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:50.
Game 2prediction correct4:31
Shopify Rebellion 91%GOBURRRrrr 9%
The model gave 91% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 11:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 91%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2