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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 35 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 24 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 34 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 31 game
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 27 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 26 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
524 picks · 344 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
444 picks · 962 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
428 picks · 937 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 860 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
392 picks · 863 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 998 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 345 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:32
Shopify Rebellion 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Aster in 49:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidArteezy
48% · 170 games50% · 281 game
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
48% · 195 games50% · 315 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
50% · 140 games56% · 122 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
52% · 123 games51% · 380 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickFly
47% · 550 games48% · 80 games
LionKaka
Lion
Game 2prediction missed17:24
Shopify Rebellion 52%Team Aster 48%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
53% · 247 games49% · 178 games
Faceless VoidMonet
Faceless Void
Monkey King
Monkey KingArteezy
53% · 257 games50% · 168 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
57% · 398 games41% · 420 games
SnapfireSumaiL
Snapfire
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
54% · 217 games48% · 63 games
LionKaka
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
51% · 420 games44% · 710 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 52%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2