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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 28 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
80%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
612 picks · 644 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1235 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1052 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 681 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 919 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:19
Shopify Rebellion 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArteezy
50% · 274 games60% · 148 games
MedusamiCKe
Medusa
Snapfire
SnapfireAbed
46% · 390 games49% · 440 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
50% · 203 games53% · 159 games
Visagezai
Visage
Techies
TechiesCr1t-
53% · 269 games47% · 480 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Batrider
BatriderFly
46% · 307 games46% · 216 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed36:10
Shopify Rebellion 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArteezy
46% · 172 games51% · 109 games
LycanmiCKe
Lycan
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
52% · 239 games45% · 365 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
52% · 146 games53% · 149 games
Underlordzai
Underlord
Chen
ChenFly
54% · 92 games49% · 135 games
EnigmaiNSaNiA
Enigma
Techies
TechiesCr1t-
56% · 163 games40% · 54 games
ClinkzBoxi
Clinkz
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2