?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 23 games
74%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 19 games
84%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 18 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 11 games
91%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 10 games
90%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
960 picks · 659 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
580 picks · 927 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
550 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
518 picks · 343 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
499 picks · 1093 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
468 picks · 347 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:28
Shopify Rebellion 49%TSM 51%
The model gave 51% on TSM — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArteezy
45% · 79 games51% · 129 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
49% · 275 games53% · 333 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingCr1t-
47% · 398 games50% · 386 games
Death Prophetkasane
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickFly
46% · 621 game50% · 261 game
MarciAri
Marci
64% · 264 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct19:39
Shopify Rebellion 50%TSM 50%
The model gave 50% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomArteezy
55% · 165 games52% · 125 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
52% · 36 games52% · 88 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Mirana
MiranaFly
58% · 293 games43% · 83 games
Invokerbryle-
Invoker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenCr1t-
49% · 191 game43% · 204 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
41% · 185 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2