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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 23 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 12 games
92%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 34 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 20 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 20 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 18 games
72%
Riki
Rikisignature
Saksa · 18 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1006 picks · 682 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 483 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
607 picks · 955 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
556 picks · 435 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
520 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1175 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
512 picks · 368 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 369 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:17
Shopify Rebellion 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerArteezy
47% · 78 games57% · 107 games
KunkkaNine
Kunkka
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
52% · 147 games50% · 51 game
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
48% · 430 games49% · 285 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
46% · 327 games57% · 263 games
MiranaAramis
Mirana
45% · 276 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
Game 2prediction missed41:19
Shopify Rebellion 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinArteezy
34% · 88 games56% · 80 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
52% · 301 game54% · 218 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
49% · 331 game56% · 218 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
47% · 75 games46% · 61 game
EarthshakerAramis
Earthshaker
56% · 218 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2