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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 15 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
73%
Visage
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 33 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 32 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
516 picks · 786 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 609 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
496 picks · 510 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
472 picks · 572 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
441 picks · 373 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 999 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 781 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 898 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 82%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:7
Shopify Rebellion 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanPakazs
54% · 123 games45% · 379 games
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
53% · 327 games54% · 220 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyYopaj
51% · 664 games46% · 251 game
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
50% · 502 games49% · 450 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Riki
RikiHellscream
57% · 97 games41% · 413 games
BatriderSaksa
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct39:21
Shopify Rebellion 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
55% · 56 games56% · 101 game
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
49% · 222 games50% · 55 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Abaddon
AbaddonPakazs
35% · 62 games53% · 299 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Morphling
MorphlingHellscream
46% · 291 game51% · 267 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSkem
51% · 125 games55% · 34 games
RikiSaksa
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2