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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 39 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 25 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 22 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 18 games
78%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 707 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 755 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
373 picks · 380 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 209 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
342 picks · 660 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 626 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 418 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 580 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:39
Shopify Rebellion 36%Xtreme Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
54% · 134 games50% · 355 games
TinyAme
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaPakazs
44% · 131 game48% · 270 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
52% · 379 games47% · 224 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSkem
47% · 105 games56% · 111 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Muerta
MuertaHellscream
48% · 326 games56% · 115 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct33:29
Shopify Rebellion 36%Xtreme Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
46% · 102 games50% · 162 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Tiny
TinyYopaj
49% · 325 games57% · 79 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaPakazs
45% · 114 games54% · 144 games
Sand KingXm
Sand King
Ringmaster
RingmasterHellscream
56% · 81 game44% · 176 games
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Bane
BaneSkem
50% · 32 games55% · 93 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2