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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
ряф^^ · 8 games
63%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
38%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 15 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 735 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 200 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 906 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 602 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
426 picks · 193 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 677 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
423 picks · 323 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
421 picks · 713 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:45
SIBE Team 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeselfhate
51% · 255 games50% · 38 games
Anti-MageRAMZES666
Anti-Mage
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritряф^^
48% · 65 games49% · 162 games
Dragon Knightre1bl
Dragon Knight
Lion
Lionsunset
50% · 286 games50% · 171 game
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSOhY
48% · 190 games54% · 200 games
BatriderOneJey
Batrider
50% · 225 games
TechiesPanto
Techies
Game 2prediction correct9:49
SIBE Team 31%HULIGANI 69%
The model gave 69% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingselfhate
50% · 217 games47% · 95 games
BloodseekerRAMZES666
Bloodseeker
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinряф^^
44% · 176 games56% · 98 games
Dragon Knightre1bl
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsunset
46% · 110 games58% · 122 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSOhY
45% · 113 games55% · 154 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
52% · 147 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 81%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2