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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 15 games
27%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 10 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%

Monte

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 4 games
75%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Crystallize · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 500 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
291 picks · 430 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
282 picks · 242 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
273 picks · 192 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 454 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 353 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
253 picks · 398 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 733 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:16
SIBE Team 57%Monte 43%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangernesfeer
51% · 177 games53% · 147 games
Faceless VoidCrystallize
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritряф^^
50% · 305 games46% · 128 games
Templar AssassinMoonlight
Templar Assassin
Chen
ChenRein
62% · 86 games44% · 133 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Tiny
Tinysunset
52% · 238 games39% · 134 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
50% · 264 games
TechiesEcNart
Techies
Game 2prediction correct33:31
SIBE Team 60%Monte 40%
The model gave 60% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 45:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritряф^^
48% · 421 game56% · 266 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Slark
Slarknesfeer
57% · 197 games53% · 85 games
AbaddonCrystallize
Abaddon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRein
45% · 220 games49% · 151 game
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batridersunset
53% · 308 games46% · 513 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
42% · 131 game
Vengeful SpiritEcNart
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 65%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2