The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T5Tony's 5 Friendsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 21 game
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
Tony's 5 Friends
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 744 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 643 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 409 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 760 bans
Rubick
385 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 1048 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Tony's 5 Friends
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
SIBE Team 62%Tony's 5 Friends 38%
The model gave 62% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 38:11.
Game 2prediction correct28:33
SIBE Team 62%Tony's 5 Friends 38%
The model gave 62% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 31:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 62%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2