The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 1:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4 Zoomerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
460 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
Mars
367 picks · 584 bans
Puck
363 picks · 874 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 431 bans
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total83% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:26
simply TOOBASED 17%4 Zoomers 83%
The model gave 83% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 43:46.
Game 2prediction correct37:23
simply TOOBASED 17%4 Zoomers 83%
The model gave 83% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 44:20.
Game 3prediction correct19:20
simply TOOBASED 17%4 Zoomers 83%
The model gave 83% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 83%
Series result4 Zoomers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3