PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
Marcisignature
yamich · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 13 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
694 picks · 499 bans
Puck
495 picks · 985 bans
Dawnbreaker
404 picks · 514 bans
Snapfire
386 picks · 194 bans
Marci
368 picks · 680 bans
Mars
322 picks · 539 bans
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 297 bans
Monkey King
302 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 68%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Soniqs 16%Virtus.pro 84%
The model gave 84% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:17.
Game 2prediction correct22:11
Soniqs 16%Virtus.pro 84%
The model gave 84% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 84%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2