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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South America Rejects

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 6 games
67%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 59 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 46 games
65%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 36 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 30 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 29 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 29 games
72%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 557 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 409 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
468 picks · 528 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 412 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
460 picks · 235 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 901 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1020 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:20
South America Rejects 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
53% · 174 games45% · 213 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Doom
DoomFrank
52% · 238 games53% · 246 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerWits
50% · 284 games49% · 320 games
TinyCrystallis
Tiny
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeScofield
49% · 99 games46% · 132 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
54% · 168 games49% · 52 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct38:38
South America Rejects 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 52:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
41% · 247 games48% · 85 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Slardar
SlardarFrank
49% · 267 games49% · 36 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Kez
KezWits
47% · 114 games60% · 66 games
LargoBOOM
Largo
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenElmisho
48% · 16 games50% · 299 games
Hoodwinkyamich
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeScofield
54% · 51 game57% · 209 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed36:25
South America Rejects 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 57:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
46% · 176 games46% · 173 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Doom
DoomWits
53% · 225 games52% · 236 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaFrank
57% · 146 games42% · 104 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
51% · 411 games54% · 204 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenElmisho
51% · 70 games47% · 311 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 60%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3