FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Elephantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 6 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Tusk
September · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Earth Spirit
September · 4 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
386 picks · 856 bans
Void Spirit
362 picks · 513 bans
Mars
311 picks · 563 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 492 bans
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 238 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 156 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
Sparking Arrow Gaming 49%Elephant 51%
The model gave 51% on Elephant — the game was taken by Elephant in 24:29.
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Sparking Arrow Gaming 49%Elephant 51%
The model gave 51% on Elephant — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 52:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 51%
Series resultElephant 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2