Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
Brewmaster
Son GoKu · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Elder Titan
XCJ · 1 game
Grimstroke
XCJ · 1 game
Ogre Magi
XCJ · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
XCJ · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 139 bans
Puck
53 picks · 149 bans
Earth Spirit
51 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 86 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 51 bans
Undying
41 picks · 64 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 86 bans
Rubick
39 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:10
Sparking Arrow Gaming 41%Royal Never Give Up 59%
The model gave 59% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 40:56.
Game 2prediction missed35:11
Sparking Arrow Gaming 41%Royal Never Give Up 59%
The model gave 59% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 30:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 59%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2