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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
56%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 8 games
38%
Mirana
Mirana
TraVins · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 7 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
60%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
80%

Lilgun

Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 9 games
89%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Se · 6 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
ace12 · 6 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
423 · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
423 · 3 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 332 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
306 picks · 291 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
274 picks · 518 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 465 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
245 picks · 550 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
230 picks · 591 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 339 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
213 picks · 113 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:36
SPAWN Team 45%Lilgun 55%
The model gave 55% on Lilgun — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 1:11:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendJikroy
49% · 81 game47% · 129 games
Queen of Paineleven
Queen of Pain
Viper
ViperMamangDaya
53% · 148 games51% · 368 games
Tiny423
Tiny
Tusk
Tuskdalul
52% · 254 games51% · 104 games
Grimstrokeace12
Grimstroke
Batrider
BatriderRed
46% · 184 games53% · 153 games
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Silencer
SilencerTraVins
48% · 87 games
Game 2prediction correct25:32
SPAWN Team 43%Lilgun 57%
The model gave 57% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingJikroy
58% · 135 games62% · 54 games
Primal Beasteleven
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
49% · 218 games48% · 165 games
Kunkka423
Kunkka
Lycan
LycanRed
51% · 81 game54% · 165 games
TuskSe
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
43% · 67 games44% · 171 game
Grimstrokeace12
Grimstroke
Silencer
SilencerTraVins
42% · 54 games
Game 3prediction missed36:14
SPAWN Team 44%Lilgun 56%
The model gave 56% on Lilgun — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingJikroy
54% · 111 games51% · 110 games
Lycan423
Lycan
Pudge
PudgeMamangDaya
48% · 48 games57% · 97 games
Primal Beasteleven
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRed
56% · 142 games38% · 173 games
Grimstrokeace12
Grimstroke
Tusk
Tuskdalul
52% · 148 games45% · 196 games
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Mirana
MiranaTraVins
50% · 127 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 58%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3