Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 19 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Fervian · 11 games
Fantastic Five
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 16 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
Hoodwink
jAMES · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
Grimstroke
633 · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
413 picks · 192 bans
Hoodwink
359 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 600 bans
Puck
294 picks · 639 bans
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 357 bans
Mars
273 picks · 484 bans
Ancient Apparition
269 picks · 439 bans
Winter Wyvern
264 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:34
Spider Pigzs 50%Fantastic Five 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawFunn1k
BristlebackKami
BeastmasterNo!ob
InvokerAskold
Monkey Kinglil pleb
TidehunterBlizzy
LinaOmaR
RubickjAMES
HoodwinkLeBronDota
Keeper of the Light633
Game 2prediction correct31:5
Spider Pigzs 51%Fantastic Five 49%
The model gave 51% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 23:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinglil pleb
BatriderAskold
Void SpiritNo!ob
GyrocopterKami
Legion CommanderFunn1k
BroodmotherBlizzy
ChenLeBronDota
Grimstroke633
Dark WillowOmaR
TuskjAMES
Game 3prediction correct35:26
Spider Pigzs 50%Fantastic Five 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 53:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenlil pleb
TerrorbladeKami
TidehunterFunn1k
BatriderAskold
Void SpiritAdzantick
AxeBlizzy
ChenLeBronDota
MiranajAMES
RubickOmaR
Ancient Apparition633
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 55%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3