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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 9 games
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
OneJey · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
OneJey · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 6 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 6 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 6 games
33%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hellscream · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
508 picks · 542 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
451 picks · 225 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 704 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 626 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
341 picks · 709 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
339 picks · 346 bans
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 788 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
323 picks · 517 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:7
StoRm 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by StoRm in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
43% · 129 games56% · 182 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Tidehunter
TidehunterDominic
41% · 62 games53% · 17 games
Gyrocopterv1olent-
Gyrocopter
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
47% · 59 games56% · 56 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
47% · 94 games60% · 44 games
ClinkzHellscream
Clinkz
53% · 45 games
Elder TitanRodjER
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed55:47
StoRm 38%Nemiga Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by StoRm in 1:06:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
Snapfirenicky`cool
47% · 191 game48% · 159 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderDominic
53% · 50 games59% · 48 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
53% · 124 games46% · 70 games
EarthshakerCorrupted
Earthshaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
56% · 82 games53% · 61 game
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
40% · 109 games
PhoenixRodjER
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultStoRm 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2